Tensions continue to simmer . "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. What war between Australia and China could look like if Taiwan conflict ", "China began planning in earnest for a potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan after the May 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.". How Australia could be forced to go to WAR as tensions between China But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University has testified that China dedicates all its resources to planning and preparing for a contingency in east Asia, while the US has additional responsibilities in the Middle East, Europe and worldwide. The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. Who would win in a war between Australia and Indonesia? And Australia could be fighting for its survival. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. "That is one reason to expect a stalemate.". "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . Grim prediction if war breaks out between US and China - Yahoo! But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? Peter Dutton says Australia should prepare for war. So how likely is a "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. Mr. Xi has championed . He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. The US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers hold 96. The US could no longer win a war against China - news There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. We Asked an Expert to Imagine a U.S.-China War. We Wish We Hadn't. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . Beijing has already put its assets in place. It can impose costs on our forces. In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. "So, how would China prosecute the war? Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. What would war with China look like for Australia? Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. Far fewer know their real story. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. But all the US planes cannot be dispatched to Chinas coastline. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity